First place in Group D will be on the line Friday after both the United States and Australia opened the 2026 FIFA World Cup with convincing multi-goal victories. The winner would advance to the knockout stage and could also be enough to clinch the group, depending on the result between Türkiye and Paraguay.
Folarin Balogun scored twice in the U.S. opener, recording the nation’s first World Cup brace since Bert Patenaude’s historic hat trick against Paraguay in 1930. Christian Pulisic, who exited at halftime in precaution, assisted on Balogun’s opening goal to collect his team-record third career World Cup assist.
Just how important is Friday’s showdown? Here are the key Group D clinching scenarios:
If the United States goes on to win Group D, it would mark just the third time in history that the Americans have finished atop their World Cup group. The U.S. previously accomplished the feat in 1930, finishing ahead of Paraguay and Belgium, and again in 2010 when it barely edged England for first place because of goals scored.
The Stars and Stripes are now listed at -210 to win Group D and are overwhelming favorites at -10000 to advance to the knockout stage.
So when will the USA lose? Or, especially after Friday’s dominance, will it even lose at all?
Let’s take a look at the updated odds for the United States’ stage of elimination at FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 17.
Team USA — Stage of elimination odds
Last 32: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Last 16: +190 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)
Quarterfinals: +370 (bet $10 to win $47 total)
Semifinals: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Runner-up: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Group stage: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Outright winner: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
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After USA’s opening win against Paraguay, the oddsboard projects the Americans to make it out of the group stage but fall in the first knockout stage game.
The second result on the oddsboard is the “Last 16,” meaning the USA would make it out of the group stage and win one knockout stage game, before falling in the second knockout stage game.
How would that result stack up against previous results? Well, at the 2022 World Cup, Team USA made it to the Round of 16, which was viewed as a stellar accomplishment.
The U.S. men’s national team currently has 35-1 odds to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy this summer (Getty Images).
In 2018, the USA did not qualify for the World Cup, and in 2014 and 2010, the Americans also made it to the Round of 16. Their best result this century occurred in 2002, when the Americans made it all the way to the quarterfinals before being eliminated.
In 1998, Team USA lost in the group stage, in 1994, it fell in the Round of 16, and in 1990, it also fell in the group stage.
But after the opening match win, expectations have been raised and a deep tournament run seems very possible.
