Ecuador had 3.08 expected goals. Curaçao had Eloy Room.
That was the whole match.
In a Group E must-win in Kansas City on Saturday, Ecuador and Curaçao ground out a goalless draw that the scoreline flatters. La Tri piled up nearly 30 shots and three-quarters of the ball, and walked off with one point. Both sides now sit on a single point and their knockout math is hanging by a thread.
Here are my takeaways:
(Photo by Maja Hitij – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
3.08 expected goals. Fifteen shots on target. Zero actual goals.
Ecuador were ruthless everywhere except in the one place it counts. At the back, they were untroubled — Curaçao managed 0.48 xG all night. In front of goal, it was a comedy. Five big chances were missed; the frame rattled, and attackers squandered one-on-one opportunities.
Which brings us to Enner Valencia. He’s thirty-six years old, still leading the line, still the reference point in the box — and still the man who fluffed two of the clearest looks of the night. He owns six World Cup goals, a national record, and every one of them feels like it was scored back in the Renaissance era. Reverence is lovely. It doesn’t put the ball in the net. At some point, manager Sebastián Beccacece has to ask himself whether it’s time to move on and give someone else a chance up front.
(Photo by Hakan Akgun/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ecuador are two games in and yet to score. That isn’t bad luck. It’s a structural flaw.
The spine is genuinely top class. Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo bossed the midfield, setting tempo and snuffing out everything Curaçao tried on the break. Behind him, Willian Pacho (PSG) and Piero Hincapié (Arsenal) form one of the best young center-back pairings at this tournament. That 0.48 xG against tells you how little ever reached Hernán Galíndez.
The problem is everything ahead of that spine. Beccacece threw on attackers — Gonzalo Plata, John Yeboah, Nilson Angulo, Kevin Rodríguez — and none could finish. The subs were aggressive; the personnel let him down. He’s built a team that controls World Cup matches. He now has to find one that can win them.
Germany is through. Everyone else is sweating.
