2026 World Cup Golden Boot: Vini Jr. Closing In On Messi, Mbappé

Two things have undoubtedly been true this summer: The superstars are shining, and the Golden Boot odds seem to be changing every minute. 

Prior to Portugal’s match against Uzbekistan on Tuesday, Cristiano Ronaldo appeared to be the only global superstar yet to make a significant impact at the tournament. 

But that all changed in a flash.

Ronaldo scored two goals in a 5-0 win, becoming the second-oldest player to score in a World Cup and just the second 40-year-old to do so. He also became the oldest player to record a brace in a World Cup match and is now Portugal’s all-time leader in World Cup goals (10).

Ronaldo jumped up the oddsboard from +5500 to +1800 after his brace. He now sits at +2500.

Then, on Wednesday, Brazil’s superstar Vini Jr. added to his total, scoring twice in a 3-0 win over Scotland. As a result, he surged up the oddsboard from +3300 to +850 to win the award.

Sheesh. We have a truly historic race brewing.

Let’s dive into the updated odds as of June 25.

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Lionel Messi: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Kylian Mbappé: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Erling Haaland: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Vinícius Júnior: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Harry Kane: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Cristiano Ronaldo: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Mikel Oyarzabal: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Deniz Undav: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Matheus Cunha: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Jonathan David: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Ismael Saibari: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Kai Havertz: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Lamine Yamal: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)
Brian Brobbey: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)
Johan Manzambi: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Crysencio Summerville: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)
Folarin Balogun: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

Here’s what to know about this oddsboard:

The Favorite(s): Recognize those two names atop the board? In Argentina’s opener against Algeria, with his first career World Cup hat trick, Lionel Messi tied Miroslav Klose for the most goals in men’s World Cup history with 16, while also setting the record as the oldest player (38) to record a hat trick, passing Ronaldo. Then, in Argentina’s second game against Austria, Messi scored late in the first half to pass Klose for the record, and scored once more late in the contest to put some space between himself and Klose. That same day, Kylian Mbappé responded with two goals of his own. The French superstar now has 16 career World Cup goals, tying Klose for the second-most in men’s World Cup history. And if that wasn’t enough, later on Tuesday, Haaland added two more goals of his own in Norway’s 3-2 win over Senegal to tighten the race even more.

The Latest: Messi now has the most goals this tournament with five, and Mbappé, Haaland and Vini Jr. are tied for second with four. Vini was at +3300 to win the award prior to Wednesday’s match, but he’s moved all the way to the +900 fourth choice. Ronaldo is among several who have two goals. Mbappé entered the tournament as the Golden Boot favorite.