After celebrating a long-awaited knockout round win at the World Cup on Wednesday night, U.S. men’s national team manager Mauricio Pochettino now has a big decision staring at him: what to do at center forward.
Folarin Balogun is suspended for the upcoming round of 16 catchup on Monday against Belgium after being shown a red card in the 64th minute against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Balogun has been excellent in this World Cup, scoring two goals against Paraguay, forcing an own goal in the United States’ win over Australia, and scoring again on Wednesday before being sent off.
The U.S. team will now be without its best scoring option against Belgium. Pochettino has several different ways to approach the team’s attack, but here are the options he most likely to consider:
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Pochettino has used the same starting lineup and formation in the games against Paraguay and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In those two games, the U.S. has won each time while outscoring opponents 6-1.
The most likely approach against Belgium is to swap Ricardo Pepi in for Balogun and keep the other 10 players in the same position with the same responsibilities. That option requires fewer changes and keeps players moving forward with the same assignments which have been working.
The good news for the U.S. team is that Pepi is still a highly accomplished forward who scored 19 goals for PSV Eindhoven this season. This includes a highly efficient run in the UEFA Champions League where he scored three goals and picked up an assist in just 149 minutes in the sport’s premier club competition.
There are two concerns over this approach. First, Pepi has not played all that great for the national team under Pochettino and there are questions over his fit into the Argentine’s system. Second, Pepi has a very different profile than Balogun.
Balogun’s style is that he is world-class at making runs behind opposing defenses. For Balogun to be effective, he needs a lot of positive chemistry with his teammates who know when he is making runs and how to get him the ball. This takes time to develop, and it is likely the primary reason why it took until this last season for Balogun to be at his best with Monaco. Similarly, it took a lot of time for Balogun to play this comfortably with the U.S. team.
Pepi does not need that type of chemistry. He is more of a classic striker who reads the game in the box, knows how to get into dangerous spots, and is far more of an aerial threat than Balogun.
But the reason why Pepi might get the nod was that his best performance for the U.S. team came just before the tournament in a 3-2 win over Senegal. In that game, Pepi did not score, but he combined very well with Pulisic in counter-attacks after turnovers.
The U.S. team won’t be able to play the same exact way with Pepi in place of Balogun. But they get someone who can combine better in the build-up and will be a good finisher in the box.
The Senegal game just before the tournament gives the best insight into how the team will play without Balogun. Expect Pochettino to mimic the Senegal game plan but with key players like Tillman and McKennie available (neither started in that game).
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When exploring other approaches Pochettino has used, there was also the 2-0 friendly loss against Portugal, when Pulisic played as a false nine striker without a true center forward in the mix.
That game did not go particularly well, but Pulisic is in much better form now than he was in March.
The obvious problem with this formation is that it takes away the team’s best one-on-one attacker from out wide. That is where so many of the U.S. team’s best chances originate that it seems unwise to take the team’s best player and put into an uncomfortable role.
If Pulisic went into a false nine position, it would require another winger such as Gio Reyna, Alex Zendejas, or Tim Weah (who appears to have lost confidence). There is also the possibility that Tillman or McKennie could shift wide and then Sebastian Berhalter comes into the midfield.
Pochettino has used it, so it can’t be discounted entirely. But it does require the team to depart from what has thus far notched three wins at the World Cup.
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