2026 World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Messi Heavily Favored After Semifinal Heroics

Two things have undoubtedly been true this summer: The superstars are shining, and the Golden Boot odds seem to be changing every minute. 

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé have traded spectacular performances all summer long in a generational battle for the Golden Boot. 

While he did not score in Argentina’s 2-1 win over England in the semifinals, Messi’s two assists spurred the historic comeback. As a result of La Albiceleste’s win, Messi has surged to the -250 favorite to win the award for the first time in his career. 

Meanwhile, even though Mbappé and France’s World Cup title dreams came to an end on Tuesday via a 2-0 loss to Spain, it is important to note that Mbappé has not been knocked out of the Golden Boot race. 

France will play in the third-place game on Saturday against England, and any goals scored in that match will count toward the Golden Boot tally. 

As it currently stands, both Mbappé and Messi lead the tournament in goals with eight apiece. If the two superstars remain tied at the end of the tournament, the winner of the award would come down to tiebreakers. 

The tiebreaker is as follows:

Currently, Messi has four assists while Mbappé has three, but Mbappé has fewer minutes played.

Let’s dive into the updated Golden Boot odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 15.

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Lionel Messi: -250 (bet $10 to win $14 total)
Kylian Mbappé: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Harry Kane: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Jude Bellingham: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Mikel Oyarzabal: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

Here’s what to know about this oddsboard:

The Tally: So far this summer, Messi and Mbappé lead the tournament with eight goals apiece, Erling Haaland scored seven (eliminated), Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have tallied six, Mikel Oyarzabal has five and Ousmane Dembélé scored four (eliminated). 

History Made: With his hat trick against Algeria, Messi tied Miroslav Klose for the most goals in men’s World Cup history with 16, while also setting the record as the oldest player (38) to record a hat trick, passing Cristiano Ronaldo. Messi is now up to 21 career World Cup goals, extending another record, this one for the most goals by any man or woman in World Cup history. He has scored eight of Argentina’s 16 goals this tournament, and became the first player since the 1960s to score in six straight knockout stage games. However, in Argentina’s quarterfinal win over Switzerland, Messi did not score, ending his streak of nine straight World Cup games with a goal. Meanwhile, Mbappé, with his dominant offensive performance this tournament, now has 20 career World Cup goals, passing Klose for the second-most in men’s World Cup history. He now has 12 knockout stage goals at the World Cup, extending his record for the most of any player ever. Mbappé is also the first player ever to score eight goals in two separate World Cups.