As a soccer oddsmaker \u2014 and an English one at that \u2014 Mark Bickerdike knows it\u2019s never over \u2018til it\u2019s over.<\/p>\n
But Bickerdike and his Caesars Sports trading team remain stunned that it\u2019s Spain vs. Argentina odds on the board for the World Cup final, rather than Spain vs. England.<\/p>\n
“We were just about ready to release Spain vs. England and had to quickly change our plans,” Bickerdike said Friday.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because Lionel Messi & Co. pulled yet another rabbit out of the hat to beat England on Wednesday. As such, Bickerdike now helps dive into World Cup odds for Spain vs. Argentina, in a 3 p.m. ET showdown Sunday on FOX.<\/p>\n
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about <\/i>Sports Betting on FOX Sports<\/u><\/i>.<\/i><\/p>\n
Better Late Than Never<\/strong><\/p>\n As everyone knows by now, England led Argentina 1-0 through 84 minutes of Wednesday\u2019s semifinal. Harry Kane & Co. were poised to reach their first World Cup final since 1966, when England won its only championship.<\/p>\n But Argentina was putting on relentless pressure and finally broke through on an 85th-minute Enzo Fern\u00e1ndez goal to tie it, off an assist from Messi. Still, it appeared overtime might be in store.<\/p>\n Then Messi made a brilliant cross in the second minute of second-half injury time. Lautaro Mart\u00ednez headed it in, ultimately giving Argentina a shocking 2-1 victory.<\/p>\n It was yet more late-match heroics for Argentina, preceded by:<\/p>\n “I think it\u2019s fair to say that Argentina definitely rode the luck wave. They\u2019ve done it the hard way. It all sets up for Messi to go out with a real bang,” Bickerdike said.<\/p>\n Fairytale Finish?<\/strong><\/p>\n It won\u2019t get easier against Spain, with Argentina an underdog for the second straight match.\u00a0<\/p>\n Caesars opened the three-way moneyline \u2014 for 90 minutes plus injury time \u2014 at Spain +125\/Argentina +230\/Draw +220. As of 5 p.m. ET on Friday, it\u2019s Spain +123\/Argentina +250\/Draw +198.<\/p>\n In the To Lift The Trophy market \u2014 which accounts for all methods of victory (regulation\/OT\/penalty-kick shootout) \u2014 Caesars opened at Spain -170\/Argentina +135 and moved to Spain -154\/Argentina +125.<\/p>\n Between Messi playing in likely his last World Cup and all the late-game drama, the public betting masses believe that Argentina is destined to win a second straight title.<\/p>\n “The fairytale finish for Messi is probably driving customers a little bit, as well as the finishes,” Bickerdike said. “In the three-way, Argentina is taking 59% of bets and 60% of money. Spain is at 33% of bets and 34% of money.”<\/p>\n That leaves Draw with the remaining 8% of bets and 6% of money.<\/p>\n “On To Lift The Trophy, it\u2019s a similar story in terms of tickets: 65% Argentina and 35% Spain. But the money is a lot closer \u2014 54% Argentina and 46% Spain,” Bickerdike said.<\/p>\n What The Book Wants<\/strong><\/p>\n First off, as with every soccer match, sportsbooks want 90 minutes plus injury time to end in a draw. That allows the books to scoop up all the three-way money on both teams, virtually guaranteeing a winning outcome, at least on the match itself.<\/p>\n But keep in mind, the World Cup futures odds market also settles up on Sunday. So that factors into oddsmakers\u2019 considerations.<\/p>\n “In general, we want Spain to lift the trophy. We wanted that before the semifinals, and that continues,” Bickerdike said. “The perfect scenario is, let\u2019s go all the way to penalties and see Spain win. Let\u2019s see 120 minutes on that clock.”<\/p>\n If the match indeed goes to overtime, Caesars and everyone else will want it to be due to a low-scoring draw \u2014 either 0-0 or 1-1. That\u2019s because the total goals market \u2014 currently 2.5, with Under a -159 favorite \u2014 is getting slammed with Over action.<\/p>\n “The majority of our business has been on the Over. In fact, we have a decent liability on Over 3.5 goals, as well,” Bickerdike said.<\/p>\n Caesars also wants the highest-profile players shut down on Sunday.<\/p>\n “We\u2019ll be cheering against Messi and Lamine Yamal. They\u2019re taking a combined 80% of the money in the anytime goals market. So we\u2019d like to see them not get on the scoresheet,” Bickerdike said.<\/p>\n Dodging Nostradamus<\/strong><\/p>\n More than five years ago, on July 11, 2021, when X was still called Twitter, a subscriber made the following predictive post:<\/p>\n In the wake of Argentina\u2019s stunning knockout of England, that post was rebirthed and went viral. Further, multiple sportsbooks noted Friday that there\u2019s substantial action in the Correct Score market on an Argentina 3-2 victory.<\/p>\n “That is a substantial liability for us. We\u2019ve seen large-stakes bets on that and a lot of $1 bets,” Bickerdike said, while noting odds opened at +5000 and are now significantly shorter. “We moved it due to the liability. We\u2019re now at +3500.<\/p>\n “When the story came to light, it raised a few eyebrows and a few smiles. Although if it ends 3\u20132, we might not be smiling.”<\/p>\n Bookmakers at least have the favorite in their corner. And it\u2019s worth noting that Spain has given up just one goal the entire tournament, so three in one match would be unprecedented.<\/p>\n That said, I\u2019d probably throw a five-dollar flier on it, just in case, even at 35\/1. For a chance to win $175, why not take that ride?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" POPULAR SEARCHES BROWSE BY As a soccer oddsmaker \u2014 and an English one at that \u2014 Mark Bickerdike knows it\u2019s never over \u2018til it\u2019s over. But Bickerdike and his Caesars Sports trading team remain stunned that it\u2019s Spain vs. Argentina odds on the board for the World Cup final, rather than Spain vs. England. “We […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":6834,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-soccer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/play-live.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}